Understanding how visa refusal trends have evolved over the past few years can help Pakistani students make more informed decisions when choosing study destinations. Here’s an overview comparing refusal rates across two major study countries — the UK and Australia.
United Kingdom
- In 2022–23, the overall sponsored study visa issuance to main applicants stood above pre-COVID levels.
- By 2024, the UK issued approximately 393,125 study visas to main applicants, marking a 14% decline from the previous year.
- Issuances to Pakistani students contributed to this trend, alongside large drops for Indian (–26%) and Nigerian (–68%) applicants.
ICEF Monitor
- Issuances to Pakistani students contributed to this trend, alongside large drops for Indian (–26%) and Nigerian (–68%) applicants.
- Q1 2025 data shows visa grant rates for Pakistan dropping to 74%, down 8 percentage points from 2024 — indicating a refusal rate around 26%.
ProPakistani
Trend Summary – UK:
Visa refusals climbed from around early 2020s levels (~10–15%) to approximately 25–26% by early 2025.
Australia
- In 2022–23, student visa refusal rates began trending upward — from 8.5% in 2021–22 to 14% in 2022–23.
ICEF Monitor - By Q4 2023, rejection rates for Pakistani applicants soared, with visa approval as low as 23.7%, reflecting a refusal rate exceeding 75%.
ICEF Monitor - Between November 2024 and January 2025, data shows Pakistan’s approval rate at 46.6%, or a 53.4% refusal rate — still substantially higher than in early 2023.
Careers360 Study Abroad
Trend Summary – Australia:
Refusal rates for Pakistan rose sharply from around 14% in 2022–23 to over 50% in 2024–25, peaking at above 75% in late 2023.
Visual Comparison Table
| Country | Visa Refusal Rate (2022–23) | Refusal Rate (2024–25) |
|---|---|---|
| UK | ~10–15% | ~25–26% (based on Q1 2025) |
| Australia | ~14% | ~53% (Nov 2024–Jan 2025); peaked at >75% in late 2023 |
Why the Rise?
- UK: Tighter immigration rules, stronger vetting, and policy shifts affecting South Asian applicants.
ICEF MonitorProPakistani - Australia: Comprehensive visa integrity overhaul — higher language and financial requirements, bank scrutiny, and crackdown on “ghost colleges.”
