Key Takeaways from NAFSA’s Latest Findings
1. Massive Enrollment Decline & Economic Fallout
- Projected 30–40% drop in new international student enrollments this fall (2025).
- Equates to a 15% decline in overall enrollment, resulting in:
- $7 billion loss for local U.S. economies.
- Over 60,000 jobs at risk. NAFSA+1The Economic TimesICEF Monitor
2. Drivers Behind the Decline
- Visa interview suspensions between May 27 and June 18 disrupted processing during peak season.
- New social media vetting mandates for F-1, M-1, and J-1 applicants imposed without additional resources or guidance.
- Appointment shortages at consulates in major sending countries like India, China, Nigeria, and Japan. NAFSA+1ICEF Monitor
3. Broader Implications
- NAFSA’s analysis underscores that these projected losses are largely self-inflicted due to policy missteps—not external shocks like the pandemic. NAFSA
- 1.1 million international students were enrolled during the 2023–24 academic year, contributing:
- $43.8 billion to the U.S. economy.
- 378,175 jobs supported. Al Jazeera
- With most being from India and China, concentrated slowdowns in these regions could have ripple effects nationwide. Al Jazeera
Summary Table
| Metric | Impact Forecast |
|---|---|
| Enrollment Drop (New Students) | 30–40% decrease |
| Overall Enrollment Decline | ~15% |
| Economic Loss | ~$7 billion |
| Job Losses | ~60,000 jobs at risk |
| 2023–24 International Student Base | 1.1 million students |
| Economic Contribution (2023–24) | $43.8 billion and nearly 380k jobs |
What This Means:
NAFSA’s forecasts serve as a clarion call emphasizing how policy disruptions significantly impact study-abroad mobility and local economies. Without swift action—such as restoring streamlined visa processing—U.S. institutions risk losing ground in an increasingly competitive global education landscape.
